Evidence & methods

Read the result.
Understand the limits.

A research model is useful only when its evaluation matches the scientific question and the population where it may be applied.

Define the outcome precisely

Objective response, disease control, pathological complete response, and survival are different outcomes. A model evaluated for one cannot automatically be assumed to predict another. The research pages retain each study’s reported endpoint and explain material ambiguities.

Separate development and evaluation

Independent evaluation matters because a model may learn patterns specific to its development cohort. Patient-level separation is especially important when several cells, images, or samples come from one person. Preprocessing and feature selection must avoid information from held-out data.

Reporting reference: TRIPOD+AI, BMJ 2024

Look beyond a single accuracy figure

Discrimination

Can the model distinguish people with different outcomes?

Calibration

Do predicted probabilities agree with observed outcome frequencies?

Clinical utility

Would using the model improve a real decision, with benefits and harms considered?

Uncertainty & applicability

How precise are the estimates, and do they apply to the intended population?

Sensitivity and specificity describe performance at a particular threshold. Predictive values also depend on the frequency of the outcome in the evaluated population.

Research findings and clinical use are different stages

Biomarkers can inform cancer treatment, but a matching marker does not guarantee benefit. The projects presented here are exploratory analyses and do not establish a clinically validated treatment-selection test.

Good machine learning practice addresses representative datasets, independent testing, and performance in the intended context. A development framework is not evidence that a particular product has regulatory authorization.

Sources & further reading

  1. TRIPOD+AI: reporting clinical prediction model studies
  2. FDA: Good Machine Learning Practice guiding principles
  3. National Cancer Institute: Biomarker Testing for Cancer Treatment

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